RESUMO
Objectives: To analyze the budget impact (BI) of Covid-19 vaccines from a mixed U.S commercial and Medicare payer perspective after depletion of the Federally-Purchased Supply (FPS). Method(s): BI analyses were conducted in a hypothetical one-million member health plan with a mixed commercial (55%) and Medicare (45%) population over a one-year time horizon based on the current (January 2023) Covid-19 vaccine recommendations from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The two scenarios in the model include 1) the health plan does not pay for Covid-19 vaccines, and 2) after the depletion of FPS, the health plan must cover all costs for Covid-19 vaccines. Model inputs include the market shares of available Covid-19 vaccines in the US as of December 2022, Covid-19 vaccine utilization trends stratified into age groups (<12, 12-17, 18-24, 25-49, 50-64, >=65 years old) between commercial and Medicare populations, and predicted Covid-19 vaccine costs. Model inputs were based on the CDC publicly available data, real world evidence, published literature, and expert opinions. Sensitivity analyses (SA) were conducted to test uncertainties arising from the input values in the model. Result(s): The number of members receiving one primary dose, completed Covid-19 vaccine series, one booster dose and two booster doses was estimated at 9,253, 49,720, 594,933 and 29,387, respectively. The incremental Covid-19 vaccine cost per member per month over one year after depletion of the FPS was $5.92 for the commercial population, $8.93 for the Medicare population, and $7.27 for the total population in the health plan. In the SA, the largest effect was observed for the scenario which varied the percentage of population >=65 years old receiving one booster dose. Conclusion(s): The model results indicate that there will be a high budget impact from a mixed U.S commercial and Medicare perspective after depletion of the FPS of Covid-19 vaccines.Copyright © 2023